Wednesday, October 12, 2005

Spurs are back!!!

I didn't watch too much of the first preseason game last night against the Heat, especially not after the baseball game started. But the Spurs looked really dynamic in the opening minutes with the same starting five on the floor. Of course, just the continuity should be an advantage before the season even gets rolling. Miami came back to win, but the Spurs that will actually be hitting the floor dominated the game.

Finley looked good in a reserve role. The one fear I have for him is that the fewer minutes will mean he never establishes a rhythm. Nellie knows how to get the most out of his players, and that he has always played as many minutes as anyone in the league may make it hard for him to be effective in six minute stretches.

But I loved what we saw last night from Duncan. He looks a bit leaner than he has been, though maybe it is all the extra hair on his head making him appear slimmer. But he looked good, confident from the line, lighter on his feet. Ginobili looked as explosive as ever. And Van Exel as the insurance policy for the Parker struggles that seem inevitable makes this the best team the Spurs have ever fielded. More versatility, and with Phoenix getting the blow they got today, you can scratch them from the list of contenders. I did not like the roster moves they made in the off-season anyway. By signing big, slow guys, they just made themselves mediocre. Their best chance to win - and remember the WCF would have been very different with a healthy Joe Johnson - would have been to bring back the same nucleus, run Amara at 5 and Marion at 4 and just try to outscore everyone. Now they lose some of their advantage in quickness - Marion is still quick for a 3, but small forwards are used to guarding the three ball. And that was before they lost Amare until the break.

And so who are the contenders in the West to dethrone the Spurs? Houston improved, but I am not sold on Yao leading a contender yet. Dallas with a full year of AJ might be the biggest challenge; he knows Pop and the Spurs better than any enemy. Minnesota now that they have removed Cassell and Spreewell from the team? First they were the saviours, then the cancers? Kevin Garnett is not fit to carry Duncan's jock. Make no mistake about that. Denver maybe is the biggest threat from outside the division, but George Karl's teams always ultimately underachieve, and who is more overrated than Kenyon Martin. They do get Vashon Leonard back, and as long as they keep Carmelo's head out of his arse (i.e., keep him away from Kenyon), they will be good. But Bowen will shut down Carmelo head to head, and who do they have to defend the wings, let alone Duncan?

The key to this season is health. And that is why depth is so important. No player on this team will average more than 32 minutes per game. No minor injury, save to Duncan, will hurt this team much. Not that you cheer for injuries, but they happen.

There are some teams in the East that could challenge the Spurs. Miami is good, though Shaq is overrated, and the one ominous sign for the Heat from the first preseason game in the Antoine (Black Hole) Walker led the team in shots. They have a lot of guys who need the ball, and do not have the character guys to lead the way the Spurs do. Say what you will about whether Shaq or Kobe or Phil or Jack Nicholson was to blame for the Lakers demise a couple of years ago; none of that crap happens on a team with Duncan and Pop. When your team has the best player in the world, and he doesn't care about his minutes or shots, then who else will make a stir. See, Timmy is the real straw that stirs the drinks, boys. You don't even notice the straw; it flies under the radar, and is quietly effective.

I am going to make a bold prediction. This Spurs team finishes with the best regular season record in franchise history and makes a run at the best mark ever.

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